If you’re got time on your hands before the new Matrix film drops, I’ve got some reading, listening and viewing picks for you.
Military coup of the month: Earlier this week Guinea’s special forces booted out President Alpha Condé and suspended the constitution, begging the question, who’s the alpha now?* But did you know that half of coups fail? To understand why, check out Naunihal Singh’s book Seizing Power: the strategic logic of military coups which finds that the dynamics of military factions are a major determinant of coup success. If you can’t get your hands on a copy, check out this NYT article “What Makes a Coup Succeed? Confidence, Consensus and a Sense of Inevitability” which weaves in Singh’s work. (*full credit to El Diablo for this line.)
Still on Guinea, some of you might have noticed China’s Foreign Ministry issued an uncharacteristically strong statement about the country’s domestic politics, condé-mning the coup and calling for the president’s immediate release. If I were spending big money on bauxite (do I need to tell you what you can do with an aluminium tube?) from the world’s largest supplier, I’d be a bit uptight too. Over at Foreign Policy, Charles Dunst looks at why else Beijing hit pause on its noninterference policy with Guinea.
China’s security influence in Africa: While China’s mining and economic interests on the African continent are well known, we don’t discuss Beijing’s influence on military and security affairs there nearly as much. Two suggestions to get you up to speed: first is a short Monkey Cage post by Natalie Herbert on how the Belt and Road Initiative motivates African countries to increase Chinese security engagement. Cooperation often takes the form of intelligence exchanges and police and military training, with security elements often “bundled” into BRI economic agreements.
Second is Dries Velthuizen’s short article on why China can address weaknesses in Africa’s peace and security. Velthuizen proposes that China enhance the African Union’s intervention capacity using lessons learned from the PLA, including the implementation of non-combatant approaches such as poverty alleviation programs. He also argues that China’s economic model be used as a blueprint for development. Read more about his research here (13 pages).
Thailand, between two ferns: over on The Strategist, Jittipat Poonkham smacks down outdated views of Thai foreign policy as bamboo bending with the wind. As Bangkok engages more militarily with Beijing, there has been a decline in alignment with its ally Washington. Hammering that point home, “Thailand has participated in more combined military exercises with China than any other Southeast Asian country.” Super informative is Poonhkham’s assessment of the material shifts in Thailand’s strategic relations with the US and with China, and worth pondering is his proposal for a new Thai narrative of “leading-from-the-middle”.
Taliban and Jemaah Islamiyah: Next up, the Institute for Policy Analysis and Conflict (IPAC) dropped new knowledge last week on the impact of the Taliban’s victory on Indonesia’s JI (20 pages). The quick take? “In the short-term, JI does not pose a significant threat [but] No one should rule it out”, says IPAC director Sana Jaffrey, and for now “the pro-ISIS groups remain the ones to watch.” There are some bits at the end on the Taliban but really the report is one useful update of JI’s goals and strategy, structure, cash flows, views on women and military capacity.
Uncle Leo: Lastly, today marks the 20th anniversary of the death of mujahideen leader Ahmad Shah Massoud known as the Lion of Panjshir, killed in 2001 by al-Qaeda suicide bombers posing as journalists. If you ever wanted to know more about him, you might want to start with writer and investigative journalist Tam Hussein’s Twitter thread packed with articles, photos, quotes and interviews offering some glimpses into Massoud’s extraordinarily rich and complex life. The late Saudi journalist Jamal Khasoggi, who met Massoud in 1992, said “I fell in love with him like everyone else…he was truly an astonishing guy. I wish that Osama met Massoud…it could have changed history.” For balance, Hussein includes critiques of the guerrilla fighter, highlights his tainted legacy, and how his son Ahmad Massoud is leaning on a romanticised image of his father to shore up support for the resistance.
Podcasts: Yup, this week’s Suggests came with a big serve of coup d’état, so why stop now? From the 2019 files, CSIS’ Into Africa host Judd Devermont interviews Naunihal Singh (Naval War College), Max Siollun (Nigerian historian and author), and Alexis Arieff (Congressional Research Service) on intra-military dynamics and coups play out in sub-Saharan Africa (35mins). Then, recorded back in 2017, Naunihal Singh and Lawfare’s Benjamin Wittes dig into Zimbabwe’s case and military coups in general (37mins).
Events: Go shorty, it’s your birthday! With the Philippines–US Mutual Defense Treaty turning 70 in 2021, watch Philippines Defense Secretary Delfin Lorenzana and US Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense Lindsey Ford discuss the history, the present and the future of the alliance. Hosted by Pacific Forum via Zoom on Wednesday 22 September 9.30pm UTC -4 (DC folks) / Thursday 23 September 9.30am UTC +8 (my peeps in Perth, Singapore and KL), register here.
This week’s tune is courtesy of 50 Cent, dedicated to D-Lor and L-For. Image courtesy of Flickr user Halil Gokdal. See you next week! —NS